Sunday, November 22, 2009

CR: Effect of Fed buying MBS

From Calculated Risk Blog:
It isn't that Fannie and Freddie "can’t sell to an end buyer", it is that the GSEs [securities] will be selling for a lower price (higher yield) when the Fed completes the MBS purchase program. At that time mortgage rates will probably rise by about 35 bps to 50 bps (relative to the Ten Year) in order to attract other buyers. Alone that isn't all that "scary".
The Fed has issued more than a trillion Federal Reserve Notes (otherwise known as dollars) to buy mortgage backed securities. This is is serious currency debasement for 50 bps! However, I believe the total impact has been bigger: for one, it probably has driven Treasury yields lower than otherwise, so even though the effect on the spread is only 50 bps, the effect on the yield must have been bigger. Second, it has increased liquidity in this market and increased confidence (perception) towards the ability of the GSEs to retain their role in the financial system.

But combined with the growing problems at the FHA, the distortions in the housing market caused by the first-time home buyer tax credit, rising delinquencies, the uncertainty of the modification programs, and likely further house price declines in many bubble states - there are serious problems ahead for the housing market.
Click here for the full post.

2 comments:

  1. Yeah friend i am absolutely agree with your views. No doubts the strategy increased liquidity in the market and hence increased confidence towards the ability of the GSEs to retain their role in the financial ystem. Miami real estate

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  2. Yes you are right but Who knows what will happen in the future. If the liquidity crisis continues there could be an extended recession or worse.Homexpert

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