One-time unexpected short-term fiscal effects, such as the Cash for Clunkers program, may thus not be captured, and I won't try to make up for it by artificially boosting my model's forecasts. The public demand component is accounted for through other variables, and I do expect my model to capture most of it over the medium-run.
Next 12 months: 1.5% growth
Q4 2009: 1.1%
Q1 2010: 0.8%
Q2 2010: 1.0%
Q3 2010: -1.3%
Q4 2010: -2.1% (as always, this last one is to be taken with a grain of salt as my model is not made to make forecasts more than 12 months out).
Below is a graph of my monthly GDP forecasts (annualized), along with the 50%, 75% and 90% confidence bands (click to enlarge):