One-time unexpected short-term fiscal effects, such as the Cash for Clunkers program, may thus not be captured, and I won't try to make up for it by artificially boosting my model's forecasts. The public demand component is accounted for through other variables, and I do expect my model to capture most of it over the medium-run.
GDP Forecasts:
Next 12 months: 1.5% growth
Q4 2009: 1.1%
Q1 2010: 0.8%
Q2 2010: 1.0%
Q3 2010: -1.3%
Q4 2010: -2.1% (as always, this last one is to be taken with a grain of salt as my model is not made to make forecasts more than 12 months out).
Below is a graph of my monthly GDP forecasts (annualized), along with the 50%, 75% and 90% confidence bands (click to enlarge):
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Your graph on economic outlook, looks like my projection of the general stock market. I agree
ReplyDeletewith you that most investors still think there is a little punch left in the bowl, me included
until this last weekend. I got a reality check,
and hopefully I can avoid some of the pain I got to experience last year at this time. I will check in on your blogs from time to time,
you seem to have no "Agenda", and use clean information.
zinfool
you posted on Benzinga
ReplyDeletelet's talk. email us. i don't see an email for you on here. nice write-up!
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