Showing posts with label Consumer confidence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Consumer confidence. Show all posts

Friday, November 27, 2009

More tidbits from the Consumer confidence report

From David Rosenberg:
In terms of financial markets, and this is a good contrary indicator, those expecting the equity market to go up (33.1 to 36.3) and those expecting it to go down (28.7 to 23.8) have moved to levels last seen in July 2007 (right when the market was peaking out and about to roll over).
Interest rate expectations, meanwhile, have moved in a bullish direction for bonds. Those respondents expecting yields to rise went from 50.1 to 51.3 in November and those expecting yields to fall slipped from 15.3 to 12.9 — levels last posted in August 2007 in what were the early stages of one of the biggest bond rallies in the past 30 years.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Consumer confidence vs. GDP growth

The highest correlation that can be found between consumer confidence and GDP growth... is not that high (about 0.5):

This makes consumer confidence one of the less-reliable leading indicators of the economy.