Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Unemployment might be peaking sooner than you think

Although I am more bearish in my GDP forecast than many others (see these posts), I don't believe that should necessarily translate into unemployment peaking in the mid-teens. See this graph (click to enlarge) :

Using this transformation of the data, since the growth in initial claims for unemployment insurance has peaked, the unemployment rate could follow soon. How slowly it will go down is another question.

1 comment:

  1. Looks like you're right about unemployment, but your GDP forecasts are way off. Okun's Law is still the law of the land.