Monday, November 23, 2009

Hester: Economic Data Surprises index

I love Mondays. Why? Every Monday John Hussman, maybe the most brilliant mind in the business (let's say it's a tie with El-Erian), publishes his weekly market comment:
The cumulative tally of surprises in economic reports (a metric we credit to Bridgewater, which Bill Hester adapted here), has also turned down decidedly. Though the historical correlation is not always as strong as it has been during the recent downturn, shifts in economic surprises have tended to lead market turns in recent years.

Still, with market internals mixed but not clearly collapsing, prices strenuously overbought but still achieving marginal new highs, and valuations unfavorable but not as extreme as they were in 2000 or 2007, investors may be convinced that there is still a little bit of punch in the bowl

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