Friday, February 5, 2010

Once again, the Baltic Dry and gold prove to be the best early indicators

They may call it "Doctor" Copper, but the metal is, just like other industrial metals, at best a leading indicator of industrial activity, and industrial activity is preceded by changes in financial conditions. The earliest signals of the correction we are experiencing in risk assets have been given by the Baltic Dry index and gold -- peaking in end November / early December, with copper and equity markets peaking more then a month afterwards:

Remember this the next time you watch CNBC and hear about "Doctor" Copper.

As an aside, following this logic, equities are not yet ready to stage a sustained rebound.

1 comment:

  1. Gold tends to have a mini-peak in late Dec/early Jan, due to the window dressing effect, as funds start buying gold to show that it's something they hold for the year-end report. After all, gold has been the stellar annual performer yet again... so the window dressing effect gets enhanced.