Thursday, January 28, 2010

A few words from veteran analyst Richard Russell

I want to remind subscribers that (in my opinion) we are now dealing with a bear market rally that is in the process of topping out. The actual bull market topped out back in 2007. Therefore we are now dealing with a rally in a bear market that appears to be topping, and there is a world of difference. A bear rally that is topping out will not give off the same warning signals that a dying bull market will. Thus, many analysts who are still bullish are looking at the wrong thing. They don't see the usual signs of a bull market topping out because that is not what is happening. And this is keeping them bullish. What we're looking at is a rally in a bear market that is in the process of topping out.
Top or not, I don't see the point in having much, if any, exposure to equities at these levels of valuation (see most of my previous posts... this little correction we've had should come as no surprise to regular readers, and it wouldn't be much surprising either if it develops into a full fledged down leg. Upside potential is very limited for the broad U.S. stock indices).

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