Monday, January 25, 2010

"Emerging Markets Appear Fully Priced"

From BCA Research: Emerging Markets Appear Fully Priced

Contrary to Nouriel Roubini or The Economist, I don't believe there are "asset bubbles everywhere". There are a few little bubbles here and there (some high end housing markets in fast-developing Chinese cities come to mind). "Fully priced" is more appropriate, and this means upside potential is very limited in most equity and bond markets, as well as some commodities (unless a full-fledged bubble develops, which is unlikely before the banking system starts lending again). It also means downside potential is very important, and we've had a taste of that last week in developed equity markets.

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